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Still, if they could just get a lucky bounce or two, stay semi-healthy for once, maintain the lineup MacIntyre intended to field, or pull off a threatened upset (usually against UCLA), we might be telling a different story. The Pac-12 is producing more decent teams than ever before, and the Buffs have yet to become one. Plus, while bad luck might not be your fault, selling recruits on your vision is difficult the longer you go without winning. The Buffs are 3-10 in one-possession games and 7-17 in all the others. Under MacIntyre, CU has had one good offense and zero good defenses. Having $4 is an improvement over being broke, but it doesn't buy you much. To be sure, the program is better than when he inherited it, but he inherited a program coming off of its worst season ever. It's now harder to sell the idea that MacIntyre is making progress. I was wrong, and the reasons why began before Liufau went down. The defense was still lagging, but I figured the offense would continue to progress. Since bottoming out at 120th in the S&P+ ratings in 2012, they had risen to 98th in MacIntyre's first season and 77th in his second. In 2015, the win total improved, but the quality did not. I was able to contend CU had improved on paper through two years, even though the win total hadn't changed. It only takes a few injuries to find out that you don't have the depth, and CU very much figured that out in MacIntyre's third year. Maybe you need two years, and maybe you need four, but there's a path.

You scrape by during a tough Year Zero, you put the pieces in place in year two, you break through in year three. And CU went 2-5 in one-possession games.Īt times, a rebuild can seem orderly. The secondary was again an injury-riddled mess. 2 rusher Michael Adkins for most of the season. CU dealt with another 2.3 points per game of bad turnovers luck, lost quarterback Sefo Liufau to injury with three games to go, and lost both starting left tackle Jeromy Irwin and No. There are still too many question marks to assume a fourth-year surge, but the Buffs aren't that many breaks from turning things around. Summary: Injuries and bad bounces have led to a slow rebuild. CU has to get better at winning tossups, and this is the first one. Projected S&P+ ranking: 82 (11 in Pac-12)ĥ-year recruiting ranking: 56 (11 in Pac-12)īiggest strength: The secondary has speed and legitimate star power.īiggest question mark: Is Sefo Liufau going to be healthy? And if he's not, does CU have even a replacement-level QB?īiggest 2016 game: vs. The short version (Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports) The Buffs were 1-4 in games decided by one possession and so close to, yet so far away from, a breakthrough in Pac-12 play. The result: a 2-10 season marked by offensive improvement but marred by defensive ineptitude. In 2014, his second year in Boulder, his Buffaloes dealt with nearly four points' worth of bad turnovers luck per game and a significant level of injury on the defensive line and in the secondary. Mike MacIntyre probably wouldn't admit this - it's a sign of weakness to acknowledge that you were unlucky - but by now he knows how hard a rebuilding job can be when the breaks don't go your way. You can follow the right process and make the right moves, and it might not matter because of this bounce or that knee injury.

The ball is pointy, and this sport claims injury victims in a rather random way.

Below, a unique review of last year's team, a unit-by-unit breakdown of this year's roster, the full 2016 schedule with win projections for each game, and more.

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